電力設(shè)備與新能源行業(yè)2019年度策略報(bào)告擁抱變革，連接未來(lái)

1、目錄1.復(fù)盤(pán)：跌宕起伏復(fù)盤(pán)：跌宕起伏中前行前行..........................................................................................................................................................................72.新能源車(chē)：下游新能源車(chē)：下游需求旺盛，行業(yè)發(fā)展無(wú)

2、憂(yōu)求旺盛，行業(yè)發(fā)展無(wú)憂(yōu)..........................................................................................................................................82.1汽車(chē)電動(dòng)化趨勢(shì)不改..........................................................

3、........................82.2補(bǔ)貼退坡預(yù)計(jì)仍將延續(xù)...............................................................................102.3新能源車(chē)產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)量一枝獨(dú)秀.............................................................................112.4中游競(jìng)爭(zhēng)漸

4、入白熱化.................................................................................142.4.1動(dòng)力電池：寧德時(shí)代一騎絕塵...................................................................142.4.2正極材料：NCM811將是未來(lái)..........................

5、.........................................162.4.3負(fù)極：能量密度提升方向不改...................................................................192.4.4電解液：關(guān)注供給對(duì)價(jià)格的影響.................................................................212.4.

6、5隔膜：濕法隔膜市占比不斷提升.................................................................232.4.6電機(jī)與電控：國(guó)產(chǎn)化提升空間巨大...............................................................252.5投資策略：聚焦能量密度提升.....................................

7、....................................262.5.1當(dāng)升科技（300073）：布局高鎳正極產(chǎn)能，NCM811領(lǐng)頭羊..................................................................................262.5.2璞泰來(lái)（603659）：負(fù)極盈利能力突出.....................................

8、..................................................................................263.光伏：政策回暖光伏：政策回暖，守得云開(kāi)見(jiàn)月明守得云開(kāi)見(jiàn)月明.........................................................................................................

9、...........................................273.1政策急剎車(chē)，冰火兩重天的2018..............................................................................................................................273.2政策及需求回暖助行業(yè)走出陰霾...........

10、............................................................283.3高效單晶電池引領(lǐng)行業(yè)發(fā)展方向.......................................................................303.3.1提升轉(zhuǎn)換效率是降低成本的重要手段...............................................

11、..............303.3.2N型電池片轉(zhuǎn)換效率上限更高....................................................................313.3.3P型電池：PERCSE提升中短期天花板..........................................................323.3.4N型電池：TOPConHJT電池打開(kāi)新格局......

12、...................................................343.4平價(jià)上網(wǎng)加速到來(lái)...................................................................................363.4.1產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價(jià)格大幅調(diào)整，加速平價(jià)過(guò)程..................................................

13、...........373.4.2優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能成本優(yōu)勢(shì)對(duì)沖產(chǎn)能利用率下降...........................................................393.4.3具備光照及電價(jià)優(yōu)勢(shì)地區(qū)將率先實(shí)現(xiàn)平價(jià).........................................................443.5與電網(wǎng)協(xié)同推進(jìn)能源清潔化...........................

14、................................................463.5.1配額制為新能源消納提供政策保障...............................................................463.5.2特高壓為新能源消納提供技術(shù)保障...............................................................47

15、3.6投資策略：甄選優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能釋放的頭部公司...............................................................483.6.1通威股份（600483）：用先進(jìn)產(chǎn)能引領(lǐng)發(fā)展...........................................................................................................

16、....483.6.2隆基股份（601012）：?jiǎn)尉娲厔?shì)下最大的受益者...............................................................................................484.風(fēng)電：消納改善風(fēng)電：消納改善，海上風(fēng)電引風(fēng)潮海上風(fēng)電引風(fēng)潮.......................................................

17、.............................................................................................494.12019年風(fēng)電將進(jìn)入競(jìng)價(jià)時(shí)代..........................................................................494.2消納改善促運(yùn)營(yíng)商業(yè)績(jī)大幅提升...............

18、........................................................514.3風(fēng)機(jī)集中度提升及大型化趨勢(shì)不改.....................................................................524.3.1風(fēng)機(jī)制造商集中度顯著提升........................................................

19、.............52東興證券年度報(bào)告東興證券年度報(bào)告電力設(shè)備與新能源行業(yè)2019年度策略報(bào)告：擁抱變革連接未來(lái)DONGXINGSECURITIES表20:多晶硅產(chǎn)能分布情況（晶硅產(chǎn)能分布情況（噸年）年）..................................................................................................................

20、................................40表21:單晶硅片及硅片總產(chǎn)能分布（晶硅片及硅片總產(chǎn)能分布（GW）........................................................................42表22:電池片產(chǎn)能分布情況（池片產(chǎn)能分布情況（GW）......................................................

21、........................43表23:組件產(chǎn)能分布情況（件產(chǎn)能分布情況（GW）................................................................................44表24:2018年9月能源月能源局規(guī)發(fā)布劃將新建規(guī)發(fā)布劃將新建9個(gè)特高壓項(xiàng)目個(gè)特高壓項(xiàng)目............................................

22、..................................................................47表25:國(guó)家對(duì)于風(fēng)電的重要政策家對(duì)于風(fēng)電的重要政策...............................................................................................................................

23、.............................50表26:國(guó)家能源局和各省海上風(fēng)電規(guī)劃家能源局和各省海上風(fēng)電規(guī)劃................................................................................................................................................56表27:待開(kāi)工核電項(xiàng)目列

24、表開(kāi)工核電項(xiàng)目列表....................................................................................................................................................................63表28：重點(diǎn)跟蹤公司重點(diǎn)跟蹤公司.............................

25、...................................................................................................................................................68插圖目錄插圖目錄圖1:2018年電力設(shè)備行業(yè)與滬深年電力設(shè)備行業(yè)與滬深300漲跌幅跌幅............................

26、..........................................................................................................7圖2:各行業(yè)各行業(yè)2018年漲跌幅年漲跌幅（%）.................................................................................7圖3:新能源車(chē)

27、銷(xiāo)量及在汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售總新能源車(chē)銷(xiāo)量及在汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售總量中占比中占比........................................................................................................................................12圖4:2018年電動(dòng)乘用車(chē)銷(xiāo)量分布年電動(dòng)乘用車(chē)銷(xiāo)量分布..........................

28、................................................................................................................................12圖5:2018年電動(dòng)乘用車(chē)行業(yè)集中度變化年電動(dòng)乘用車(chē)行業(yè)集中度變化.........................................................

29、.....................................................................................12圖6:新能源車(chē)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)（萬(wàn)輛）新能源車(chē)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)（萬(wàn)輛）..........................................................................................................

30、................................................14圖7:電池需求裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（電池需求裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（GWh）..............................................................................14圖8:三元電池裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（三元電池裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（GWh）....................................

31、..........................................14圖9:磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)（GWh）..........................................................................14圖10:電池裝機(jī)量變化（池裝機(jī)量變化（kWh）..............................................

32、.....................................15圖11:電池裝機(jī)中三元、磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機(jī)中三元、磷酸鐵鋰占比（比（%）.............................................................................15圖12:動(dòng)力電池價(jià)格變化（力電池價(jià)格變化（元kWh）.........................................

33、...................................15圖13:2018年動(dòng)力電池裝機(jī)量市占比分布年動(dòng)力電池裝機(jī)量市占比分布..........................................................................................................................................16圖14:2018年

34、動(dòng)力電池行業(yè)集中度變化年動(dòng)力電池行業(yè)集中度變化..............................................................................................................................................16圖15:正極材料出貨量變化（噸）極材料出貨量變化（噸）..........................

35、..............................................................................................................................17圖16:正極材料出貨量分布極材料出貨量分布.......................................................................

36、.............................................................................................17圖17:正極材料價(jià)格變化（極材料價(jià)格變化（元噸）噸）...................................................................................................

37、...................................................17圖18:正極材料出貨量行業(yè)集中度極材料出貨量行業(yè)集中度............................................................................................................................................

38、............18圖19:2018Q13正極材料出正極材料出貨量分布量分布..................................................................................................................................................18圖20:負(fù)極材料出貨量（噸）極材料出貨量（噸）.......

39、.........................................................................................................................................................19圖21:負(fù)極材料出貨量分布極材料出貨量分布............................................

40、........................................................................................................................19圖22:負(fù)極材料價(jià)格變化（極材料價(jià)格變化（元噸）噸）........................................................................

41、..............................................................................19圖23:負(fù)極材料行業(yè)集中度極材料行業(yè)集中度.......................................................................................................................

42、.............................................20圖24:2018Q13負(fù)極材料出負(fù)極材料出貨量分布量分布.................................................................................................................................................

43、.20圖25:電解液出貨量變化（噸）解液出貨量變化（噸）............................................................................................................................................................21圖26:電解液價(jià)格變化（解液價(jià)格變化（元噸）噸）..........

44、................................................................................................................................................21圖27:電解液行業(yè)集中度變化解液行業(yè)集中度變化...................................................