畢業(yè)論文正式版

1、marketingstrictinternalcostcontrolbusinessinnovationperfmance.Increasingelectricityaccesspriceincreaseelectricitysupplyisguaranteed.In2012thecompanywithcoalinventygetrewardsofJiangsuprovincialgovernmentpowerto266millionk

2、Wh.Throughthe“small“bilateraltradeaccesstoelectricity1.695billionkWhseekingremovalcompensationwhenthepower50millionkilowatt116%marketshareinJiangsuProvincerankedfirstinthesamecapacitythesametypeunits.Companycloselytracke

3、dcoallinkagepoliciesonJuly1August20respectivelyincreaseprices2.08minutes2.5pointsprofitabilityincreasedsignificantly.公...Jobgradingremunerationoflabouragreementsintolongtermcontractwkerscompensationsystemstimulatingtheen

4、thusiasmofthestaff.Furtherstrengtheningofhumanresourcesmanagement.Fullimplementationoftheperfmanceappraisalregulationsincentiveeffect.Completethereservecadreevaluationionproduced10primaryreservecadres11secondaryreserveca

5、dres.Implementationofoperationstaffinductiongangsystem14staffpostsbepromoted.Strengtheningthecultivationofprofessionaltechnicalleadersedcoverage913factylevelprofessionaltechnicalleaders.Toenhancestaffskillstraining8staff

6、technicians.Labcontractlawcompliancecontractsofupto100%.Starteambuildingtoadvancefurther.Establisha“holdingsystemimplementationpromotingthewhole“teambuildinggoalsstrengthengroupmanagement.Teambuildingintoaperfmancereview

7、promotingtheconstructionofthestarteamdepth.Thisyearrespectively1track4teamfourstarratedfivestarbyDatangtheteam.Fourinsistson“sixculturalconstructionof“harmoniousdevelopmentreallygoodjobofpartyconstructiontheindependentCo

8、mmissionagainstcruptionstrengtheningthehumanisticcarepsychologicalcounselingtheenterprisecultureconstructiontoanewlevel.Buildingofenterprisecultureisfruitful.CompaniesadheretotheShenhualeadofcpateculturecultureofresponsi

9、bilityatthecetosafetycultureacultureoflearningethicalculturecostcultureculturesystemassistedthroughvariousculturalintegrationhasboostedbusinesscentrethisyearhaswonthe“Chineseculturalmanagementadvancedunit““NationalAdvanc

10、edUnitinthebuildingofenterprisecultureofrefmopeningup30“otherhonarytitles.Theliabilityofthecompanyculture:solvingmanagementproblemsofcpatecultureprojectwasawardedtheCECnationalelectricpowerenterprisecultureachievementawa

11、rdofexcellence.TheaccidentearlywarningpreventionsystemwasratedasChinaspowerofinnovationmanagementinnovationmanagementofelectricpowerenterpriseinJiangsuProvince.PartytheindependentCommissionagainstcruptioncontinuestostren

12、gthen.Wascarriedoutto“maintainsecurityprofitmaintainstabilitypromoteharmoniousdevelopment“asthemaincontentofthe“threeguarantees“themepracticeactivities“stressingpartyspirittoconductfexample“campaignpartyfurtherimprovemen

13、tofthelevelofwk.Staffparticipatinginthehonestcleancultureconstructionseminarsstaffssenseofprobityenhanced.Foundedbyhonestinspectsteamcomposedof12employeestobroadenthechannelsofsupervision.Adheretoestablish“fourgood“l(fā)eade

14、rshipactivitiesstaffsatisfactionrateof98%totheteam.Groupwkdynamic.PromotingtheopennessoffactyAffairsproposalfaloveletterboxtothevitalinterestsofthestaffTradeUniondelegationleadermeetingofthe26systemtodiscusssafeguardthei

15、rdemocraticrights.Improvetheganizationalstructureofthemissionthewkofstrengthening.ganizemaintenancelabemulation“healthCup“competitionenhancetheskillsofstaff.ganizedavarietyofculturalactivitiesphysicalmentalhealthcarestaf

16、ftocreateaharmoniousatmosphere.DuringtheWenchuanearthquakedonatedallthecompanyemployeestolovetosupptthedisasterareas.Thisyearthecompanyhaswonthe“Su...Cuttingcostscanbecontrolledmoneyshouldnotbewasted“managementphilosophy

17、managementanalysistoimprovemanagementqualityimprovecostcontrolcapacitymarketcompetitiveness.Innovationofsciencetechnologysciencetechnologyinnovationistoplaytheroleofsciencetechnologyastheprimaryproductivefceactiveuseofne

18、wtechnologiesnewmaterialsnewprocessesnewequipmentincreaseinvestmentinsciencetechnologystrengtheningscientifictechnologicaltrainingspeedinguptransfmingscientifictechnologicalachievementsfminganumberofproprietarytechnology

19、enhancingcecompetitiveness.Resourcesavingtheresourcessavingenterprisewastoreducecoalconsumptionwaterconsumptionelectricityattheceenhancetheoperationofleanmanagementtorealizelowconsumptionhighefficiencyreduceproductioncos

20、ts.Secondistostrengthenthebusinessfinancialmaterialinfmationtheoptimizationofganizationmanagementsavingtheinternaltransactioncosts.Harmoniousdevelopmentofharmoniousdevelopmentistoconstructa“feign“environmentfdevelopment.

21、“XING“referstothe“internalsecurityfirminternalmanagementoftheinternalmanagementmeasuresareeffectiveharmonious“.“Feigncurrency“means“Enterprisecodinatingdevelopmentofhomeopathywellgetalongwiththeneighbsbetter.“(B)XX2013fi

22、veenterprisesbuildingintrinsicsafetypowercompanygoalsare:unplannedoutage0times.Classofdisders00isequivalentfcedoutagerate.Nopersonalinjuryaccidentmaterialequipmentaccidentsdonotoccurnofirenoenvironmentalpollutionaccident

23、.Enterpriseintegratedtoachievezerocasesofviolationzeroaccidentszero.Qualitygoalis:whengeneratingcapacity≥7.5后危機(jī)時(shí)期我國(guó)個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析后危機(jī)時(shí)期我國(guó)個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析內(nèi)容提要內(nèi)容提要：個(gè)人住房按揭貸款所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是最主要、最基本的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的期限特點(diǎn)和諸多不確定因素確定了其信用風(fēng)

24、險(xiǎn)的長(zhǎng)期存在，所以商業(yè)銀行必須把防范和控制個(gè)人住房按揭貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擺在首要位置。關(guān)鍵詞：個(gè)人住房按揭貸款關(guān)鍵詞：個(gè)人住房按揭貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)商業(yè)銀行商業(yè)銀行后危機(jī)時(shí)期后危機(jī)時(shí)期隨著住房制度改革的深化和住房需求的增長(zhǎng)，1998年以來我國(guó)的住房按揭貸款業(yè)務(wù)在國(guó)內(nèi)迅速發(fā)展，2000年一2006年的平均年增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)62%，大大超過同期金融機(jī)構(gòu)全部人民幣貸款的增長(zhǎng)率?。2007年發(fā)生了自美國(guó)而起席卷世界的金融危機(jī)，西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的房?jī)r(jià)受危機(jī)影響

25、大幅度下降，而國(guó)內(nèi)房?jī)r(jià)在經(jīng)過短暫低迷后強(qiáng)勢(shì)上揚(yáng)，根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局在2010年2月發(fā)布的《2009年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行報(bào)告》稱我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)在2009年漲幅高達(dá)24%。雖然2010年開始我國(guó)政府開始著手實(shí)施各項(xiàng)政策，但目前各地的房?jī)r(jià)仍不斷飛揚(yáng)，更是出現(xiàn)了杭州樓盤在2010年4月13日4小時(shí)內(nèi)上漲15萬的非正常現(xiàn)象。這種杭州的購房恐慌不是個(gè)別現(xiàn)象，在其他城市也不同程度的出現(xiàn)，這種情況是在國(guó)家出臺(tái)多種政策調(diào)控房?jī)r(jià)和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家房?jī)r(jià)不斷下降的背景下產(chǎn)生，讓人不

26、禁擔(dān)心中國(guó)是不是正在走日本的房產(chǎn)泡沫的悲劇，而作為商業(yè)銀行在這種后危機(jī)時(shí)代如何控制個(gè)人住房按揭貸款所帶來的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為一個(gè)有挑戰(zhàn)的課題?。一、有關(guān)研究個(gè)人按揭房貸的文獻(xiàn)綜述一、有關(guān)研究個(gè)人按揭房貸的文獻(xiàn)綜述在國(guó)內(nèi)，對(duì)個(gè)人住房按揭貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)原因的探討是在1998年我國(guó)銀行業(yè)介入這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)之后才出現(xiàn)的。最初，學(xué)者們對(duì)個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的定義進(jìn)行界定。彭濤(1999)認(rèn)為，所謂個(gè)人住房按揭貸款違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指借款人到期不能歸還貸款利息、而給金融機(jī)構(gòu)帶來

27、的損失，借款人的違約行為按是否受其財(cái)力影響，分為被迫違約和理性違約[1]。王重潤(rùn)(2002)認(rèn)為，個(gè)人住房按揭貸款違約是指借款人在合同執(zhí)行期間終止還款并己持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。從貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理角度，通常將逾期90天即連續(xù)三個(gè)月未能償付貸款本息的現(xiàn)象當(dāng)作違約[2]。王福林(2004)在其論文中按照其數(shù)據(jù)的要求將違約定義為借款人在借款期內(nèi)未能正常支付金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款本息而發(fā)生逾期兩期或兩期以上[3]。以上幾位研究人員從理論上給出了個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的定義，

28、為以后的研究做了鋪墊。田凱（2008）在其論文中通過借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外常用的研究方法，對(duì)我國(guó)個(gè)人住房按揭貸款違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了規(guī)范研究和實(shí)證分析。他在文章中的規(guī)范研究主要是通過國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的研marketingstrictinternalcostcontrolbusinessinnovationperfmance.Increasingelectricityaccesspriceincreaseelectricitysupplyisguaranteed

29、.In2012thecompanywithcoalinventygetrewardsofJiangsuprovincialgovernmentpowerto266millionkWh.Throughthe“small“bilateraltradeaccesstoelectricity1.695billionkWhseekingremovalcompensationwhenthepower50millionkilowatt116%mark

30、etshareinJiangsuProvincerankedfirstinthesamecapacitythesametypeunits.CompanycloselytrackedcoallinkagepoliciesonJuly1August20respectivelyincreaseprices2.08minutes2.5pointsprofitabilityincreasedsignificantly.公...Jobgrading

31、remunerationoflabouragreementsintolongtermcontractwkerscompensationsystemstimulatingtheenthusiasmofthestaff.Furtherstrengtheningofhumanresourcesmanagement.Fullimplementationoftheperfmanceappraisalregulationsincentiveeffe

32、ct.Completethereservecadreevaluationionproduced10primaryreservecadres11secondaryreservecadres.Implementationofoperationstaffinductiongangsystem14staffpostsbepromoted.Strengtheningthecultivationofprofessionaltechnicallead

33、ersedcoverage913factylevelprofessionaltechnicalleaders.Toenhancestaffskillstraining8stafftechnicians.Labcontractlawcompliancecontractsofupto100%.Starteambuildingtoadvancefurther.Establisha“holdingsystemimplementationprom

34、otingthewhole“teambuildinggoalsstrengthengroupmanagement.Teambuildingintoaperfmancereviewpromotingtheconstructionofthestarteamdepth.Thisyearrespectively1track4teamfourstarratedfivestarbyDatangtheteam.Fourinsistson“sixcul

35、turalconstructionof“harmoniousdevelopmentreallygoodjobofpartyconstructiontheindependentCommissionagainstcruptionstrengtheningthehumanisticcarepsychologicalcounselingtheenterprisecultureconstructiontoanewlevel.Buildingofe

36、nterprisecultureisfruitful.CompaniesadheretotheShenhualeadofcpateculturecultureofresponsibilityatthecetosafetycultureacultureoflearningethicalculturecostcultureculturesystemassistedthroughvariousculturalintegrationhasboo

37、stedbusinesscentrethisyearhaswonthe“Chineseculturalmanagementadvancedunit““NationalAdvancedUnitinthebuildingofenterprisecultureofrefmopeningup30“otherhonarytitles.Theliabilityofthecompanyculture:solvingmanagementproblems

38、ofcpatecultureprojectwasawardedtheCECnationalelectricpowerenterprisecultureachievementawardofexcellence.TheaccidentearlywarningpreventionsystemwasratedasChinaspowerofinnovationmanagementinnovationmanagementofelectricpowe

39、renterpriseinJiangsuProvince.PartytheindependentCommissionagainstcruptioncontinuestostrengthen.Wascarriedoutto“maintain金融學(xué)院本科畢業(yè)論文securityprofitmaintainstabilitypromoteharmoniousdevelopment“asthemaincontentofthe“threeguar

40、antees“themepracticeactivities“stressingpartyspirittoconductfexample“campaignpartyfurtherimprovementofthelevelofwk.Staffparticipatinginthehonestcleancultureconstructionseminarsstaffssenseofprobityenhanced.Foundedbyhonest

41、inspectsteamcomposedof12employeestobroadenthechannelsofsupervision.Adheretoestablish“fourgood“l(fā)eadershipactivitiesstaffsatisfactionrateof98%totheteam.Groupwkdynamic.PromotingtheopennessoffactyAffairsproposalfaloveletterb

42、oxtothevitalinterestsofthestaffTradeUniondelegationleadermeetingofthe26systemtodiscusssafeguardtheirdemocraticrights.Improvetheganizationalstructureofthemissionthewkofstrengthening.ganizemaintenancelabemulation“healthCup

43、“competitionenhancetheskillsofstaff.ganizedavarietyofculturalactivitiesphysicalmentalhealthcarestafftocreateaharmoniousatmosphere.DuringtheWenchuanearthquakedonatedallthecompanyemployeestolovetosupptthedisasterareas.This

44、yearthecompanyhaswonthe“Su...Cuttingcostscanbecontrolledmoneyshouldnotbewasted“managementphilosophymanagementanalysistoimprovemanagementqualityimprovecostcontrolcapacitymarketcompetitiveness.Innovationofsciencetechnology

45、sciencetechnologyinnovationistoplaytheroleofsciencetechnologyastheprimaryproductivefceactiveuseofnewtechnologiesnewmaterialsnewprocessesnewequipmentincreaseinvestmentinsciencetechnologystrengtheningscientifictechnologica

46、ltrainingspeedinguptransfmingscientifictechnologicalachievementsfminganumberofproprietarytechnologyenhancingcecompetitiveness.Resourcesavingtheresourcessavingenterprisewastoreducecoalconsumptionwaterconsumptionelectricit

47、yattheceenhancetheoperationofleanmanagementtorealizelowconsumptionhighefficiencyreduceproductioncosts.Secondistostrengthenthebusinessfinancialmaterialinfmationtheoptimizationofganizationmanagementsavingtheinternaltransac

48、tioncosts.Harmoniousdevelopmentofharmoniousdevelopmentistoconstructa“feign“environmentfdevelopment.“XING“referstothe“internalsecurityfirminternalmanagementoftheinternalmanagementmeasuresareeffectiveharmonious“.“Feigncurr

49、ency“means“Enterprisecodinatingdevelopmentofhomeopathywellgetalongwiththeneighbsbetter.“(B)XX2013fiveenterprisesbuildingintrinsicsafetypowercompanygoalsare:unplannedoutage0times.Classofdisders00isequivalentfcedoutagerate

50、.Nopersonalinjuryaccidentmaterialequipmentaccidentsdonotoccurnofirenoenvironmentalpollutionaccident.Enterpriseintegratedtoachievezerocasesofviolationzeroaccidentszero.Qualitygoalis:whengeneratingcapacity≥7.5率未發(fā)生變化，那么王先生每

51、月的還款額將是9497.59元，共需還利息69855.4元，省了8000多元。如果利率下調(diào)，那么顯然選擇浮動(dòng)利率的方式貸款會(huì)比利率不動(dòng)時(shí)更加省錢。但如果利率上升，情況就有些復(fù)雜了。如果利率每年上調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，那么王先生的總共需還款.8元，利息76743.8元，比固定利率仍然少還1150.4元。如果利率第一年上調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，后面四年不變，那么王先生總共需還款.9元，利息74342.9元，比固定利率少還3551.3元。如果利率第一

52、年上調(diào)1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，后面四年不變，那么王先生總共需還款.3元，利息78858.3元，比固定利率多還964.1元。如果利率第一年上調(diào)1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，后面四年不變，那么王先生總共需還款.5元，利息83400.5元，比固定利率多還5506.3元。由上例可知當(dāng)預(yù)期利率不會(huì)出現(xiàn)較大浮動(dòng)，考慮到違約成本以及個(gè)人信用成本等問題，作為一個(gè)理性的消費(fèi)者將不會(huì)選擇違約，但是當(dāng)預(yù)期利率出現(xiàn)較大浮動(dòng)且不利于自身時(shí)，理性的消費(fèi)者將會(huì)選擇提前還貸或者違約，從而導(dǎo)致商

53、業(yè)銀行出現(xiàn)損失。（二）由房?jī)r(jià)的升跌導(dǎo)致的個(gè)人住房貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)房?jī)r(jià)的升跌受經(jīng)濟(jì)周期影響較大，當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)上行時(shí)房?jī)r(jià)處于上升周期，銀行所面臨的個(gè)人住房按揭貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)大大下降，但是如果經(jīng)濟(jì)處于下行期，銀行所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就大大增加，下面我們就兩種情況進(jìn)行一下分析。情況1:第m期房?jī)r(jià)A(m)大于或等于貸款余額B(m)提前還款成本:C1=B(m)主動(dòng)違約的成本:C2=A(m)繼續(xù)履約的成本:C3=M(m)=D(m)[(li)nl]i(li)n。其

54、中:D(m)為合同規(guī)定的月償還額，n為尚需償付次數(shù)i為資金機(jī)會(huì)成本，對(duì)資金豐裕者，i為其運(yùn)用資金的最高收益(與投資住宅同等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的項(xiàng)目)，對(duì)資金不足者，i為籌資的最低成本M(m)為貸款價(jià)值。由此可見，當(dāng)A(m)大于或等于B(m)時(shí)，主動(dòng)違約的成本是要高于繼續(xù)履約成本，在沒有突發(fā)事件發(fā)生情況下，借款人通常不會(huì)選擇主動(dòng)違約。情況B:第t期房?jī)r(jià)A(m)小于貸款余額B(m)提前付清的成本:C1=B(m)違約的成本:C2=A(m)繼續(xù)履約的成本:C

55、3=M(m)=D(m)[(li)n一l]i(li)n當(dāng)C2C1，且C2C3時(shí)，選擇違約對(duì)借款人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上最有利。因此理性違約發(fā)生的必要條件是:A(m)B(m)，A(m)M(m)。若令E=A(m)min[B(m)，M(m)]，則理性違約發(fā)生的必要條件為:E0?？梢钥闯?，E實(shí)質(zhì)上是借款人積累的物業(yè)權(quán)益。借款人向銀行申請(qǐng)住房貸款再加上自己的首付款購買物業(yè)后，在物業(yè)中有銀行和借款人兩個(gè)權(quán)益主體。銀行在物業(yè)中的權(quán)益等于貸款余額，隨著貸款的不斷歸還，