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1、DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asare
2、sultinvestsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.7July2017AmericasUnitedStatesEquityResear
3、chAssetManagersUSTraditionalAssetManagers–2Q17PreviewSECTREVIEWResearchAnalystsCraigSiegenthalerCFA2123253104craig.siegenthaler@creditAriGhosh2123257113ari.ghosh@creditJdanFriedler2123253184jdan.friedler@creditExpectSoli
4、dResultsContinuedImprovementinto2H17–BLKTopLongIn2Q17resultsoverthenextmonthwegenerallyexpect(1)betterthanexpectedimprovedflows(especiallyconsideringnegativeseasonalityqq)(2)higherAuMbalancesrevenues(strongmarketback1ext
5、raday)(3)improvedoperatingmargins(aidedbyrevenuelift)(4)betterthanexpectedEPSresults(includingsomepositivecontributionfromnonoperatingincome).2Q17flowsfeeratesareespeciallypositivewhenyouconsiderwheremarketexpectationswe
6、re612monthsagogiventhefirstDOLRuleimplementationdeadlineofApril2017(delayedtoJune17).Howeveraswewroteaboutin“DarkestBefeDawn“onMay4welookfflowsfeestotrendbetterthanmarketexpectationsin2017expectthepaceofthethreesecularro
7、tations(activetopassivehightolowfeeMFtoETFSMA)toslowin2018intheUS(butaccelerateoutsideoftheUSgivenFCAReviewinUKMiFID2inEUfutureregulations).Note:ETFsarealsostealingsharefromsinglesecuritiesininvestptfoliosincludinginstit
8、utionalinvests(insurancecompanies)retailinvestswhichcanprovidenewsourcesofgrowththatareoutsideoftheactivemanagers.Wehaverevisedestimatestargetpricesacrossourcoverage.PleaserefertoFigure8.■Macro:ExcludingLATAMallmajglobal
9、equitymarketsgeneratedstrongreturnsagainin2Q17withEMEuropeleadingtheUS.Bondreturnswerebroadlypositiveacrosstheboardwithallmajcategiesgeneratingpositivereturns(includingUSGlobalHighYield).Globaleconomicactivitymodestlyund
10、erperfmedexpectationsintheUSwith“hard”datasofteningwithlowerprospectsffiscalstimulusderegulation.■Flows:Industryflowtrendsremainedconsistent–withinflowsintoETFspassiveactivefixedincomebutnegativeintoactiveequities.Howeve
11、ractiveequityflowsdidimproveqq(despitenegativeseasonality)aretrackingbetterthanourinitialfecasts(feeratestrendingbettertoo).Wecontinuetobelieve2017willcontainpeaknegativeactivityftraditionalmanagers(activetopassiverotati
12、onhightolowfeeshiftfrequencyoffeecuts)expecttheselevelstoslowin201819aspassiveshareofequityassetsreach50%intheUSnextyear.■LTIndustryView:Wehaveamixed12monthviewofthetraditionalmanagersdrivenby(1)severalsecularheadwindsto
13、flowsintraditionalproductclasses(activeequities)(2)elevatedriskoffreepressure(3)riskofnewregulations(especiallyinEurope)thatfocusonconsumerprotectiongenerallyencourageinveststoshiftfundsintolowcostindexproducts.Howeverth
14、eUSassetmanagerstocksarecheaprelativetotheirhistylongonlyinvestsaregenerallyunderweightwhichcouldleadtobetterthanexpectedstockperfmance.Wefecasta510%totalreturnftheaveragetraditionalstockoverthenext12months(includesdivid
15、ends).7July2017USTraditionalAssetManagers–2Q17Preview32Q17ThemesConclusionsFigure1:CumulativeUSRetailEquityFlows($B):Figure2:CumulativeUSRetailBondFlows($B)6005004003002001000100200300400ActiveEquityPassiveEquityMFPassiv
16、eEquityETF50250255075100125150ActiveBondPassiveBondMFPassiveBondETFSource:CreditSuisseAssetManagerResearchSimfundActiveEquityincludesactiveMFactiveETFSource:CreditSuisseAssetManagerResearchSimfundActiveBondincludesactive
17、MFactiveETFMacro■Equitymarketreturnswerestrongfthemostpartin2Q17(exLatinAmerica)withUSindicesupfthequarterwhileEMEuropeanequitiesoutpaceddomesticequityreturns(onapointtopointbasis).Fixedincomereturnswerepositiveacrossthe
18、boardwithallmajcategiesincludingceUSbondsEMhighyieldmunisgeneratingpositivereturns.IndustryflowswerepositiveintoETFspassiveactivefixedincomebutnegativeintoactiveequitiesmoneymarketfunds.Weexpectthenegativeflowsinactiveeq
19、uitiestocontinuebuttoslowin201819.Weestimate2Q17publicassetmanagerflowsat1.0%ganicgrowth(ann.)whichwhilenegativebelow1Q17(0.6%)isntthatbadgiventhedualheadwindsofDOLimplementationnegativeseasonality(taxseasonoffof401kinfl
20、owsin1Q).Whileganicgrowthtrendscontinuetolookweakfthegroupwebelievethatthestocksnowreflectaslightlymepositiveoutlookasthegrouphasrallied9%onaverageoverthepastthreemonthscomparedto3%ftheS&P5007%ftheUSfinancialsect.Weestim
21、atemuchoftheoutperfmanceYTDhasbeendrivenby(1)hedgefundshtcovering(2)longonlyallocationsincreasingfromunderweight.Stocks■BLK(Outperfm)–weexpectanEPSbeatareprojectingverystrongflowsin2Q17(ffullyear2017)drivenby$70BofiShare
22、sinflows(~$50BEquity$20BFixedIncome)withmethanhalfoftheinflowsiginatingfromoutsideofitsceseriesETFs(verylowfee).WecontinuetoseeourBLKretail“l(fā)grab“thesisplayingoutwithGlobaliSharescrossingtheannual$100BflowmarkalreadyinJu
23、ne(vs.Octoberin2016Novemberin2015).WealsoexpectBLKs2Q17feeratetostabilizegivenamepositiveback(FXdivergentbeta)alsonotethatwebelieveBLKsretail(~60bps)ETF(~30bps)segmentswilldrivefuturegrowthbothsegmentsaremeprofitablethan
24、BLKsslowergrowthinstitutionalsegmentoverallbusiness(~19bps).BLKremainsourtoptraditionallong.■LM(Outperfm)–webelieveLMwillreptaGAAPearningsmissflowswillturnslightlynegative.Howeverweestimatethereareabout$0.350.40ofonetime
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