智能制造行業(yè)專題報(bào)告（五）鋰電設(shè)備，分化還未定型，淘汰正在發(fā)生，宜居危而思安

1、正文目錄一、政策寵兒，高額補(bǔ)貼下新能源汽車行業(yè)快速成長(zhǎng)...............................................6二、退補(bǔ)與降價(jià)，對(duì)鋰電供應(yīng)商和設(shè)備供應(yīng)商的影響.............................................122.1補(bǔ)貼退坡，雙積分政策接力，行業(yè)景氣仍將持續(xù)..............................122.2補(bǔ)貼退坡的壓力傳導(dǎo)，鋰電設(shè)備供應(yīng)

2、商毛利率下滑............................152.3本章小結(jié)................................................................20三、階段性產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，結(jié)構(gòu)性機(jī)會(huì)仍相當(dāng)可觀........................................................203.1現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)超過(guò)2020年的需求..............

3、............................203.2行業(yè)集中度持續(xù)提升，無(wú)效產(chǎn)能將持續(xù)出清..................................223.3電池技術(shù)分化，軟包電池?cái)U(kuò)張有望新增130億設(shè)備市場(chǎng).......................243.4本章小結(jié)................................................................27四、投資建議

4、.........................................................................................................27五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.........................................................................................................27

5、六、附錄................................................................................................................28圖表34先導(dǎo)智能、贏合科技等產(chǎn)品毛利率變化(%).............................................................18圖表35寧德時(shí)代和國(guó)軒高科的研

6、發(fā)投入占比(%).................................................................19圖表36寧德時(shí)代及國(guó)軒高科的凈現(xiàn)比(%)............................................................................19圖表37先導(dǎo)智能等公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流(億元)及占收入比例(%)................

7、.........................20圖表38我國(guó)新能源汽車產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)(臺(tái))...................................................................................21圖表39我國(guó)動(dòng)力鋰電池裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)(GWh).....................................................................

8、.....21圖表40我國(guó)主要鋰電池供應(yīng)商產(chǎn)能及規(guī)劃.........................................21圖表41我國(guó)動(dòng)力電池生產(chǎn)廠家個(gè)數(shù)...............................................22圖表422016年以來(lái)我國(guó)動(dòng)力鋰電池市場(chǎng)份額前十名................................22圖表432017年寧德時(shí)代等鋰電供應(yīng)商產(chǎn)能利用率...

9、...............................23圖表44寧德時(shí)代24條產(chǎn)線投資設(shè)備清單..........................................23圖表45鋰電設(shè)備上市公司近期獲得大額設(shè)備訂單...................................23圖表46圓柱電池、方形電池、軟包電池內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)比...............................24圖表47圓柱、方

10、形、軟包電池對(duì)比...............................................24圖表48兩種制造工藝的主要差別.................................................25圖表49卷繞和疊片工藝差別及設(shè)備差別...........................................25圖表502018年軟包電池大事件..................

11、................................25圖表512018年110月份三種電池出貨占比.......................................26圖表52軟包電池特有設(shè)備供應(yīng)商.................................................26圖表53主要鋰電設(shè)備示意圖............................................